Airdrop Army

Arthur Hayes just came clean, and the numbers ain’t pretty. The ex-BitMEX head honcho revealed in his essay that only 2 outta 8 of his market forecasts in the last year actually hit the mark. Yeah, you heard right—25% accuracy. But here’s the kicker: even with that low hit rate, dude’s still pulling in profits. And while many would freak over a miss like that, Hayes keeps his eyes on the long game.

A .250 Batting Average? Hayes Doesn’t Flinch

“Batting Average = .250. That’s pretty shit to the common man,” Hayes flat-out confessed. Using a baseball analogy to humblebrag his miss rate, he’s saying most would call that garbage. From November ‘23 through September ‘24, Hayes made bold market calls on everything from crypto pumps to Treasury bill politics, central banks being clueless, and banking mayhem. But he admits those short-term swings slapped him in the face.

Still, he’s stayin’ cool because macro is his playground. He’s got his sights on long-term flows, where all that fiat gets printed non-stop to keep the financial system from imploding.

Maelstrom Fund Dips Out of PENDLE, Eats a $1.29M Hit

In a recent move, Hayes and his crypto-hedge playground Maelstrom dumped their bags of Pendle (PENDLE). Over two days, they offloaded 1.59 million PENDLE tokens for $5.62M. The price wasn’t sweet, sitting at an average of $3.52 a token. Quick math? They walked away with a $1.29M burn. So what? In Hayes’ world, that’s just noise because it’s all about the bigger picture—governments flooding the market with fiat will fuel Bitcoin’s rise.

The “Volatility Supercycle” and Bitcoin’s Moonshot

Here’s where Hayes is vibing. His “volatility supercycle” thesis ain’t budging. The plan? Wait for central banks to go brrrr, printing that fresh fiat to keep volatility in a cage. He believes that soon enough, all that printed money’s gonna seep into crypto like water in a leaky boat, sending Bitcoin into orbit. It doesn’t matter how shaky the short-term predictions get because, in the long run, fiat goes down, BTC goes up. Hayes might fumble a few ball calls, but he’s laser-focused on this: Bitcoin (BTC) is the fortress for surviving the financial apocalypse.

As Hayes put it, “the fiat required to keep volatility at suppressed levels will find its way into crypto.” Major banks like the Fed, ECB, and even PBoC will ease monetary policies and inflate the system with liquidity. Hayes? He’s just gonna sit back, relax, and watch the numbers on the portfolio stack up while fiat self-destructs.