Bitcoin’s demand, after a volatile summer, seems to have leveled out in September. But to keep the prices on the upswing, demand will have to spike big-time in the final quarter, according to a fresh analysis from CryptoQuant. The report, issued on Tuesday, lays out how bitcoin’s demand—calculated by subtracting long-held dormant coins from the daily block subsidy—has been fluctuating lately.
Since July, Bitcoin’s net demand shifted between a loss of 23,000 and a gain of 69,000 BTC per month. In September, however, the wild swings mellowed out, with demand steadily climbing, even though it wasn’t enough to push prices into orbit. “Demand grew by as much as 496,000 BTC back in April when prices were near $70,000,” said the CryptoQuant analysts. They also added that this shows just how much room there is for growth in the upcoming quarter.
Halving Cycle Patterns Emerge Again
According to CryptoQuant’s take, the start of 2024 shows echoes of bitcoin behavior seen in previous halving cycles. Long-term hodlers, who tend to keep their coins in cold storage, offloaded their stacks earlier in the year, boosting demand. But that wave subsided over the summer.
“If history repeats, demand could pick back up soon, increasing short-term supply,” analysts noted. And if bitcoin’s network follows its past cycles, this surge might fuel an influx of coins onto the market, which often precedes a bullish run. But whether this repeats or fizzles remains to be seen.
ETFs Picking Up Steam in the U.S.
In a plot twist that surprised no one, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have been flexing their muscles. September kicked off with ETFs selling off a net 5,000 BTC, only to flip the script by the month’s end, recording a 7,000 BTC net buy on September 30. That was the biggest daily purchase since July.
“Spot ETFs bought an average of 9,000 BTC daily in Q1 2024, which helped push bitcoin to fresh highs,” analysts noted. If the ETF demand machine keeps humming, it could push prices higher in Q4.
However, Tuesday wasn’t so hot. For the first time since September 3, spot bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, snapping an eight-day streak. The sole bright spot came from BlackRock’s IBIT, the biggest bitcoin ETF in the game, which still snagged $40.84 million yesterday.
At 12:15 a.m. ET, Bitcoin’s price saw a modest 1.2% rise, resting at $62,139. Will Q4 bring the heat? All eyes are on the charts.
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