Airdrop Army

Bitcoin might be on the verge of cracking its all-time high of $73,800 before the U.S. election, fueled by a trifecta of market dynamics. Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, believes that steepening U.S. Treasury yield curves, renewed appetite for spot Bitcoin ETFs, and a potential Donald Trump victory could spark this upward trajectory.

Yield Curve Steepening and CPI Shocks Fuel the Momentum

The key driver, according to Kendrick, is the steepening of the 2s10s U.S. Treasury yield curve, which recently reacted to stronger-than-expected CPI numbers. This steepening signals that traders expect rising volatility and potentially more interest rate hikes, so Bitcoin, as an alternative asset, is benefiting from the unease.

But the steepening yield curve isn’t the only factor propelling Bitcoin. Recent market movements suggest investors are piling into spot Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting a wider trust in the asset. On Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed their largest single-day inflows since June, raking in $555.8 million. Not one of the 12 Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows, adding confidence that this market wave has legs.

Trump Odds and a Republican Sweep: The Political Factor

What really spices up the Bitcoin soup right now is the political scene. With Trump’s odds of winning the presidential race at 56.3%, according to Polymarket, the probability of a Republican sweep stands at 39%. If Trump does win, Kendrick says, there’s a 70% chance Republicans will control both houses, which could ignite favorable conditions for risk assets like Bitcoin. Traders know this, and some are now aggressively eyeing the crypto’s next moves.

Derivatives markets are buzzing, with a surge in Bitcoin call options at the $80,000 strike price for late December. This hints at big money positioning for another leg up before year-end.

MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Bank Ambitions Fuel Confidence

Kendrick also highlights the role of MicroStrategy in this price surge. The company, holding 252,000 Bitcoin, has seen its stock price outperform Bitcoin, as investors bet on its expanding role in the digital asset world. Following a U.S. accounting exemption in mid-September, MicroStrategy could be on track to lend its Bitcoin, which adds a new potential revenue stream and further bullish sentiment.

Bitcoin’s intertwined future with both politics and institutional moves means the next few weeks could push the crypto space into uncharted territory.