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Governments in eco-conscious countries pushing Bitcoin mining bans may unknowingly trigger a carbon emissions spike, according to a recent report from Exponential Science researchers. Their analysis, shared with Cointelegraph, suggests that when green-energy nations restrict Bitcoin mining, they may inadvertently push mining operations to dirtier, high-emission regions, thus worsening global carbon output.

Carbon Leakage: A Hidden Cost of Mining Bans

Researchers raised alarms about “aggravated carbon leakage,” the term they used to describe how mining activities relocate to higher-carbon locations when restrictions tighten in low-emission areas. They explained that banning mining in places with eco-friendly grids could backfire, resulting in net increases in global emissions.

“Not all Bitcoin mining is equal,” they noted, emphasizing that nations vary widely in their energy sources and environmental impact. The report points to Canada as a prime example of a green-energy hub, heavily reliant on nuclear and hydroelectric power, where a mining ban could lead to significant emissions fallout.

“A mining ban in Canada would lead to the largest positive impact on emissions,” Exponential Science warned, estimating that such a move would boost global network emissions by 5.6%, or roughly 2.5 million tonnes of CO2 annually. The finding suggests that pushing Bitcoin miners out of low-emission regions might undo any emissions savings in the long term.

Canada’s Crypto Miners Face Extended Energy Restrictions

Canada, long considered a favorable environment for crypto miners due to its clean energy sources, recently took steps that may challenge its status. Back in April, Cointelegraph reported that the province of Manitoba extended a moratorium on new electric service requests for crypto miners. The extension restricts new applications to Manitoba Hydro, the government-owned energy agency, effectively stalling fresh crypto mining projects.

The freeze applies not only to new requests but also to pending applications that have not yet led to formal agreements on infrastructure. As Canada’s regulations tighten, miners may seek friendlier pastures elsewhere, potentially amplifying the carbon footprint Exponential Science cautions against.

Russia’s Mining Rules: A New Landscape, Not Full Legalization

In Russia, meanwhile, mining regulations are taking shape but remain limited. On November 1, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law a set of regulations providing a framework for crypto mining operations, including definitions of key legal terms. Industry experts, however, urge caution. While the legislation introduces some order, it stops short of fully legalizing the mining industry, instead establishing a complex framework of controls.

Some see Russia’s new mining laws as an effort to corral the industry while leaving miners grappling with restrictive oversight. Yet, as eco-focused nations clamp down on mining, regions with looser regulations and higher-carbon grids like Russia may become new hotspots.