Airdrop Army

As October kicks off, Bitcoin’s price action is feeling the weight of China’s Golden Week, a holiday that tends to leave markets looking a little slow. With traders in China stepping away from their desks for seven days, the crypto world sees a dip in activity, and analysts are now eyeing a possible 5-10% correction in Bitcoin. That’s right, this celebration, which starts on October 1 and stretches through the week, might just chill the markets for a while.

At present, Bitcoin is sitting at $63,980, down by 0.6% in the last 24 hours, according to CoinGecko’s stats. Ethereum, however, is doing a bit better, inching up by 0.5% to $2,643. But don’t expect fireworks just yet. Analysts aren’t too confident about any major moves until these Chinese festivities wrap up.

Volatility Spikes as Traders Brace for Key U.S. Events

But it’s not just China’s holiday vibes slowing things down. Over in the U.S., a bunch of macroeconomic stuff is looming large, and the crypto market is paying attention. The vice-presidential debate between Tim Walz and J.D. Vance on October 1, along with jobless claims and payroll reports later this week, have traders cautious. In fact, volatility’s creeping up.

Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, mentioned that “IV prints higher led by short-dated contracts,” meaning options traders are expecting some sharp moves soon. He added that last week’s $5 billion options expiration could be fanning the flames of this volatility. Spot trading for Bitcoin even dipped below $65,000, signaling a bearish vibe might hang around through October.

Bitfinex analysts are chiming in, warning that while Bitcoin has reclaimed critical levels like the Short-Term Holder Realized Price ($62,750), the market might have hit a ceiling—for now, anyway. They see a modest pullback of around 5-10% as healthy for the market, preventing any overcooking on the futures side.

Momentum Wanes as Bitcoin Traders Seek Support Levels

Meanwhile, Valentin Fournier at BRN says the Stochastic RSI looks bullish, but the MACD isn’t having it—momentum’s fading. Bitcoin’s RSI is no longer overbought, hinting at a possible correction into the $61,000-$62,500 range. He adds that if the U.S. unemployment rate deviates from the expected 4.2%, it could send ripples through the crypto market, pulling risk assets like Bitcoin with it.