Airdrop Army

As Trump’s presidential odds wobble, Bitcoin took a hard knock. The Big Orange dropped 6.5% today, scraping down to $69,200 on Nov. 1—its second-highest level of 2024 just out of reach days prior at $73,600. Traders now question if Trump-fueled support will see another re-run or if the “Trump pump” has blown its top.

Prediction markets—PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi—have been buzzing with bets, yet Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris has been thinning by the hour. That’s sent shivers through the crypto space, where Trump’s seen as a hedge against regulation, with his campaign cozying up to crypto-friendly policies like no other. And, as traders see it, Bitcoin’s been hitching a ride on that wave, feeding off the anticipation of a pro-Bitcoin administration.

Derisking and Rising Wedges: Chart-Watchers Eye the Next Squeeze

Earlier in the week, Bitcoin danced near its record high of $73,794, getting within a whisker of that level on Bitstamp before cooling off. According to veteran trader HornHairs, “Derisking into the election 5-6 days before it takes place happened in both 2020 and 2016.” The pattern’s clear: traders hit the brakes before elections, with BTC never retesting those lows after the dust settles.

But let’s talk overbought signals. Bitcoin’s daily RSI cracked past 70 on Oct. 29, a signal the market’s been on an adrenaline rush—an overbought territory that’s bound to pause but doesn’t mean bears are taking the reins. Instead, this setup often shows a rally that’s close to gassing out rather than totally reversing gears.

Now, the technicals weave their tale. Bitcoin slid back into its ascending channel, resembling a “rising wedge”—a bearish structure where the price inches upward, boxed within converging trendlines. For the uninitiated, wedges like these are signals of thinning buying momentum. Dropping beneath the wedge’s upper line now has BTC tracking the lower edge, near $68,000.

And here’s the kicker: if BTC punches through this lower support line, we could see a major breakdown, hitting somewhere between $55,500–$58,000 before year-end. With election flux in the air, traders might be holding their breath for more volatility-triggering headlines on the horizon.