Airdrop Army

Crypto markets are a cauldron of activity, especially with the U.S. election just around the corner on Nov. 5. According to fresh DeFi data from Derive, Bitcoin enthusiasts are bracing for a wild ride—predicting price shifts that could hit a jaw-dropping 20%.

Nick Forster, Derive’s founder, highlighted the recent market maneuvers: “The latest trading analysis reveals some compelling insights into market dynamics as we approach significant financial events.” His observations couldn’t be more timely as traders attempt to decode Bitcoin’s likely path amid looming election drama.

Call Sales Flood Market Amid $80k Strike Focus

As Forster revealed, a growing swarm of options are clustering around Bitcoin’s $80,000 strike price. Traders are strategically offloading calls in a premium-collecting spree, hinting at market expectations of election-day volatility. In fact, the number of calls sold surged to nearly 47% of all options, a nod to traders aiming to milk premium payouts.

Monday saw Bitcoin surpass $70,000, a level it hadn’t seen since June, according to CoinGecko. That push drove Bitcoin to a new local high of $71,200, as bulls revved up enthusiasm. But the $80k mark is casting a long shadow over the market, acting like a signpost where traders feel the heat could peak. Forster added, “The overwhelming dominance of calls being sold suggests a strategic premium collection by traders, while the focus around the $80,000 strike highlights a potential pivotal point for Bitcoin.”

Option Expirations Signal Pre-Election Turbulence

The week’s trading data hints at short-term turbulence, with volatility for options expiring within seven days showing a sharp uptick. As election-day nears, short-term volatility is outpacing long-term patterns—a trend Forster believes is directly tied to the election showdown between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

The stakes are higher than a HODLer’s diamond hands. Trump’s renewed promises of precise crypto policy tweaks add layers of suspense to an already uncertain landscape. Forster explained, “There’s a one in three chance that BTC could see a swing greater than 10% on election day, with a more volatile scenario of 20% movement sitting at a 5% likelihood.” In other words, the election has the power to unleash a crypto rollercoaster few traders can ignore.

Volatility Premiums on the Rise as Traders Hedge Bets

As election jitters spike, Bitcoin traders are coughing up more for options. This extra cost, tagged the volatility risk premium, shows traders are safeguarding their positions with extra “hedging” moves. They’re expecting the unexpected, buying protection for what could be one of the most volatile weeks of the year.

Forster’s final word on the matter? Expect the unexpected, and if Bitcoin’s volatility premium is any indicator, traders are gearing up for fireworks.