Yield Frenzy Stares Down Bitcoin Hype
Bitcoin’s had a wild uptick, flipping 11% gains in the last week, floating around July’s highs like it’s eyeing the next moonshot. But hold the Lambo dreams—some macro headwinds are creeping in. Yuya Hasegawa, market brain at Bitbank, waved a flag over U.S. bond yields, saying they might throw a spanner into the Bitcoin gears.
Yields on those juicy 10-year Treasuries are still hanging tight between 4.02% and 4.08%. That’s not far from September’s 4.3% high, and for risk-averse hodlers, it’s like moths to a flame. When bond yields flex, the cash flow likes to siphon away from spicy assets like Bitcoin and land in good ol’ low-risk U.S. bonds. The math’s simple: higher yields, more selling pressure on BTC. Not what the crypto moonboys wanna hear.
Fed’s Rate Game Could Tilt the Scales
But bond yields ain’t the only player in this macro circus. Hasegawa’s got eyes on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next move. With retail sales stronger than expected and jobless claims dipping, whispers are spreading that the Fed might not slam rates down as hard as everyone thought. If the rate cuts stall, Bitcoin could catch a cold breeze instead of riding the liquidity wave it’s been enjoying.
Yet, there’s still hope among the traders. Only 9% of them think the Fed will freeze rates next month, according to CME’s magic numbers. Most are still betting on a small 25-basis point trim. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is the event to watch, but nothing’s a done deal. This macro chessboard’s got some tricky moves left.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank cut its key rates by 25 basis points, tossing in some extra liquidity to stir the pot. BRN analyst Valentin Fournier thinks this could boost Bitcoin in the short run, calling the ECB’s rate chop a potential catalyst. He even hinted that if Bitcoin dodges a rejection over the weekend, it could pump straight to $70,000 by Monday for its big test.
So the big question hangs: will the bond boys win, or can the crypto apes hodl their way to the next bull phase?
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