Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, just issued a forecast that’s got the crypto space talking. In an Oct. 29 post on X, Hougan addressed a question from a financial advisor asking if Bitcoin could reach $200,000 without a U.S. dollar meltdown. Hougan’s response? Yes, Bitcoin can soar to six figures on store-of-value demand alone, without the dollar having to plummet.
Hougan broke down the appeal of Bitcoin, saying that investing in BTC means betting on two fronts: the emergence of Bitcoin as a premier store-of-value asset and the gradual debasement of fiat currencies worldwide. He suggested that while governments continue to dilute fiat with loose monetary policies, investors will flock to hard assets like Bitcoin to preserve wealth.
Gold Comparisons and a Multi-Trillion-Dollar Market
Hougan drew some serious comparisons between Bitcoin and gold. He noted Bitcoin’s current $1.4 trillion market cap, a fraction — just 7-8% — of gold’s $18 trillion total. But according to Hougan, there’s room to grow. If Bitcoin reaches even half of gold’s market cap, he envisions a Bitcoin price around $400,000. This idea hinges on Bitcoin achieving “mature asset” status, something that institutional investors are increasingly buying into.
If Bitcoin maintains its current 7% slice relative to gold but triples in demand, each BTC would be valued at about $200,000. Hougan stressed that these factors are interlinked; should Bitcoin mature further while the demand for store-of-value assets rises, BTC could hypothetically breach the million-dollar mark.
Inflation and Dollar Strategy Fueling Demand
The broader macro environment supports Hougan’s outlook, as inflationary pressures and fiat devaluation drive investors toward hard assets. Dollar devaluation might even become part of the U.S.’s core industrial strategy, according to an Oct. 29 report by Financial Sense. In the report, economists Marc Fasteau and Ian Fletcher argued that a weaker dollar is essential for U.S. competitiveness, especially against China. They advocated for policies that support tech innovation and protect against subsidized competitors.
Demand for classic store-of-value assets is already mounting, especially with geopolitical turmoil fueling uncertainty. Gold, the original safe haven, just hit an all-time high of $2,778 per ounce on Oct. 29. Bitcoin, now closely mirroring gold’s price trajectory, climbed to $73,562 before slightly retracing to $72,392 at the time of publication. Market commentators say Bitcoin might still hit a new all-time high in the weeks ahead.
Hougan is betting Bitcoin will keep winning as a store-of-value play, especially as investors seek alternatives amid global economic flux.
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