With election tensions rippling through the U.S., CME’s bitcoin options market’s busting at the seams, packed with high-stakes wagers from some serious whale wallets. The big dogs are gearing up, stacking call options that point to serious fireworks by November’s close, with prices aimed north of $85,000. They’re not just going light either; these bets are heavyweight buys, likely to jolt a few eyebrows.
Joshua Lim, captain at Arbelos Markets, points to one massive trade signaling a market mood that’s equal parts audacious and calculated. A trader splashed out a cool $4.6 million premium on 3,050 BTC options expiring November 29, stamped with a lofty strike price of $85,000. That’s a strike with over $42 million delta and $173,000 in vega, a cocktail that could gain speed if the king crypto inches closer to that price tag. With premiums stacking up this high, Lim’s read is that institutional players are just as jazzed about BTC’s route north as retail diehards.
Institutional Bulls Ramping up CME Volume in Election Countdown
In the backdrop of a nail-biting election, CME’s option flow is climbing Everest heights. Market positioning is bullish as whales hedge for an election-spurred bull run, hinting that institutional pockets may be warming to BTC like never before. “There’s bullish bias all around,” said Lim, nodding at CME’s liquidity boost from these big-league players who might just be holding the fort for the broader derivatives market’s long-term maturing.
Lim added that BTC’s morphing identity as both inflation bunker and election proxy could see it surge, particularly if election day swings Trump’s way. “The options market’s baked in a 7% shift on election day,” he noted, which could seem modest when one remembers BTC’s high-octane volatility.
Trump Outshines Harris in Polymarket Bets, BTC Futures Swing High
Meanwhile, crypto-fueled election bets are showing a Trump lean, as Polymarket odds hand him a 64.5% shot against Harris’s 35.4%. And futures traders, seeing BTC’s pre-election sprint, are pushing open interest levels in perpetual contracts to yearly highs. The open interest-weighted funding rate soared to 0.0153%, per CoinGlass data, a high unseen since June, as BTC bulls strap in for post-election turbulence.
At last tick, BTC trades at $72,500 as the total crypto market cap hovers around $2.54 trillion, down just 1.9% over the last day. If the election winds blow right, this positioning could be all it takes to send BTC straight to the stratosphere.
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