Ethereum’s volatility is stealing the spotlight, outpacing Bitcoin and leaving traders jittery as they brace for macro turbulence ahead of the November U.S. elections. The gap between the two giants of crypto is widening fast, showing Ethereum’s tendency to get rattled when uncertainties stack up.
Nick Forster, the brain behind DeFi derivatives protocol Derive, told Decrypt that Ethereum’s 30-day at-the-money volatility is now trailing nearly 7% higher than Bitcoin’s. Traders are watching closely, and it seems like Ethereum’s got a more skittish nature compared to its older sibling, Bitcoin.
Traders Prepare for an Uncertain DeFi Future
Both Bitcoin and Ethereum had nearly identical volatility levels last November. But now, with next month around the corner, the game has changed. Traders expect big moves on the horizon, but Ethereum’s mood swings have become more pronounced. Forster thinks the upcoming U.S. election is the main cause of this, especially since the future of decentralized finance (DeFi) in America is far from clear.
Ethereum, being the second-largest crypto by market cap, fuels DeFi platforms and powers a huge chunk of smart contracts. So, when uncertainty hits, Ethereum feels it deeper. According to Forster, “Ethereum’s heightened volatility is a direct reflection of traders’ expectations for increased uncertainty, especially as we approach the election.”
And there’s more data that supports this volatility shift. Spikes in forward volatility between October 25 and November 8 show Ethereum clocking in at 76.6%, while Bitcoin lags at 69.8%. That signals traders are bracing for some serious price swings around this window.
Bitcoin Sails Steadier, Yet Remains Bullish
But don’t think Bitcoin’s asleep. The market may be calmer, but Bitcoin is slowly tipping towards a bullish bias. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is entering a favorable period of Q4 performance, which could push the coin into lofty price territories. A spokesperson for CryptoQuant hinted at the $85,000 to $100,000 range for Bitcoin in Q4, as demand recovers and seasonality plays in its favor.
Meanwhile, both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are trying to woo crypto traders. Trump’s more vocal stance on crypto regulations might give him the edge, but Harris hasn’t been silent either. As the election heats up, so does the battle between these two crypto titans.
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