Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform, hasn’t been as kind to its users as one might think. According to fresh data from Layerhub, a staggering 87.3% of wallets on Polymarket didn’t see any profits. That’s 149,383 crypto wallets out of a total 171,113, leaving just 12.7% of wallets that actually came out on top.
Out of the wallets that made profits, it’s not all champagne and yachts. Only 2,138 users managed to bag more than $1,000 in winnings. The majority of the profits? Less than $100. And for those 21,730 wallets that reported profits, most of them earned between $100 and $1,000.
High Volume, But Slim Profits
Polymarket has hosted a whopping 10.8 million trades, but here’s the kicker: only a tiny portion of users saw real returns. The platform has been buzzing lately, with more than 300,000 trades going down daily between Oct. 6 and 8. You can thank the ongoing geopolitical events and the looming U.S. presidential election for that.
However, it’s crucial to understand that not every wallet is a separate human being. Some traders operate multiple wallets, aiming for those wild high-risk, high-reward scenarios. These users spread their bets across several accounts, hoping to boost their odds of landing some juicy profits.
Around 25,000 wallets have participated in over 50 trades, and close to 32,000 wallets have made between 20 to 50 trades. Compare that to the almost 58,000 wallets that made between just one and five trades. It becomes clear that most users are taking the cautious route, dipping their toes rather than diving in headfirst.
Open Interest Soars Amid Election Buzz
Polymarket’s open interest—basically the total number of futures contracts still in play—stood at $161.1 million as of October 9. Elon Musk even chimed in on the prediction action, tweeting that Polymarket could potentially predict the 2024 U.S. presidential election more accurately than traditional polling. His tweet came right as Donald Trump was leading Kamala Harris by a slim margin, stirring up even more activity on the platform.
For the bettors, this prediction game is not just about making quick cash. It’s high stakes, with most wallets grinding through multiple trades but only a select few walking away with real gains.
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