Airdrop Army

QCP Capital analysts have kept their eyes fixed on a potential ‘Uptober’ rally, contingent on Bitcoin clinging to that precious $60K mark. It’s a wild card, and they’re betting on it, as U.S. equities hit new highs but crypto’s yet to wake up. But optimism’s still in the air — as long as the king coin doesn’t tumble below that $60K zone, this uptober narrative might just play out.

So while the S&P 500 scored a fresh high, Bitcoin’s been sneaking upward too, with a modest 2% bump early Friday, landing at around $62K. The total market cap nudged up, a 1% increase over 24 hours, reaching $2.27 trillion. But it’s the U.S. equities that are driving this; mixed Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday still nudged hopes for a rate cut. Traders are leaning heavy on the CME FedWatch tool’s 85.9% chance of a 25-basis-point slice at the Federal Open Market Committee’s November gig.

QCP Capital’s team isn’t sleeping on the PPI numbers. They flagged Friday’s data as a “key risk event.” A little wiggle in those metrics, and it’s game on for reevaluating how strong the U.S. economy really is as inflation tapers off. But despite the numbers, things aren’t looking too shaky just yet.

Coinbase Analysts Split Their Bets on Macros and U.S. Election

Meanwhile, on another front, Coinbase’s David Duong and David Han weighed in with their take. Sure, Bitcoin’s price movement may have felt sluggish this week, but the market’s attitude? Still holding steady. According to them, the stable funding rates and unchanged open interest show that traders aren’t spooked. In fact, longs are still paying out to shorts, indicating bullish vibes in the room. Open-interest weighted perpetual funding rates are hovering at +0.0049%, signaling this quiet but bullish pulse in the market.

But here’s the twist—macroeconomic winds are shifting. Instead of just staring at Fed decisions, market movers are now glued to U.S. election forecasts. The chatter’s turning toward political outcomes because rate cuts? That’s old news. Even with the uptick in headline CPI and core PPI, those cuts are baked in.

And if you’re watching China? Coinbase flagged Saturday’s fiscal briefing as another curveball. They hinted that crypto might become the shadow battleground for interpreting China’s economic strength, especially with many markets hitting the pause button.